Phils Start Homestand with "messy" win

The Phillies' destiny is in their hands. Tonight they started an all important 10 game homestand, where they hold a 34-25 record. That's a winning percentage of .735, or about 74%. If the law of averages holds true, the Phillies should win 7 of the next 10 games.

Currently we're tied with the Padres for the Wild Card lead...but that's not good enough. There is still a lot of baseball left to play and I want the East. I want the Mets to come to town and leave with their tail between their legs.

If the Phillies come out of this homestand with anything less than 7 wins, then I'd be disappointed. It's bad enough we lost 2 games to the Pirates. It would be even worst to follow that up with a poor showing at home.

The good news is we secured a much needed win tonight, in a game that could have easily slipped away. Kyle Kendrick did his job again, and kept the Fightins' in the game, and gave them a chance to win. Our bullpen did their job tonight and we came out victorious. The game was a sloppy rain-soaked bore fest, but to quote former Phils' announcer Scott Graham, it's "in the win column for the Fightin' Phils".

But... bad news is afoot. Tomorrow's scheduled starter, our consistent Cole Hamels has soreness in his elbow and will miss the start tomorrow. JD Durbin, who has been pitching well with a 5-2 record is slotted to take his spot. This means that the Ancient One, Jaime Moyer is now the only Phillies starter not to miss his spot in the rotation.

Durbin has the stuff to be a good starter. He's proved that with a complete game shutout earlier this season. I've also watched him strike out the first two batters in a game at the Cit where he seemed untouchable for the first inning. He just needs to make the right decisions. His 5+ ERA is not encouraging, but his 5-2 record proves that he's a battler.

But... good news is also afoot. Chase Utley has been given permission to begin hitting off of a tee and increase his workouts. Some sources say he could be in the lineup as early as Monday. Before we get ahead of ourselves, let's concentrate on beating the Dodgers tomorrow, where the Phils will face Derek Lowe and his 11 losses. He does however have a 3.45 ERA.

And another thing... I was the first to say that Carlos Ruiz deserved to start over Rod Barajas, and I'm glad Barajas and his faux injury are out of the picture, I'll even support Ruiz and say that I think he is the catcher of the future for this team. But at this point in the game it's time to go with the hot hand, and the catcher of the present and in this case, it's Chris Coste. Coste had better start at least 6 of these upcoming home games.


One win at a time boys.

Come Out, Come Out, Wherever You Are....

I think it is due time to grill Freddy Garcia. Out of all the offseason acquisitions I was most excited about Freddy Garcia. He was supposed to be our ace. And it was pretty cool because he was joining a staff of previous aces... which is better than a staff of never-were-aces, right?

We were on board to have Freddy Garcia, a perennial innings eater with 12-15 win capabilities. Garcia made 33 starts last year and won more than half of them. The White Sox Freddy Garcia is good.

He's made 7 starts this year and has only managed to win one. The Phillies' Freddy Garcia is not good.

So Freddy, I don't want to hear excuses about not being pitched enough and just let me pitch, blah, blah, blah... if you pitch well through 5 innings, you'll pitch in the 6th. Period. If you keep your pitch count down. You'll pitch in the 7th. Period. If you're mowing them down like Cole Hamels', you might pitch the 8th. And if you're really on par, you'll pitch the 9th. Until then, just get us through 5, kid... okay?

You have exactly 2 quality starts in 7 attempts. Let's not complain about staying in the ball game just yet. Cole Hamels has that clout, not you... not yet.

Here is how the 7 games break down.

About 5 innings per start. Garcia, you've yet to make it to the 7th inning. Maybe tonight is the night. Please show us why we brought you here.

Considering 33 starts, which is a stretch, Garcia is on pace to finish the season with a 5-14 record, he'll pitch 174 innings, and have 146 Ks (this stat isn't bad..its about his average). But he'll be about 40 innings shy of what we'd expect. Over 30 starts, that's more than an inning per start lost.

Enough is enough.

Freddy, I'll reason with you. We know you are a competitor. You have 9 postseason starts... of these you've won 5 to only 2 losses.

5-2 with a 3.11 ERA is nothing to shake a stick at... that's really good. So we know you have the fire to compete. Now go out there and do it... We want the Freddy Garcia the White Sox had. That guy was good.

"I need you tonight... 'cause I'm not sleepin... there's something about you [Garcia], that makes me sweat!"

Starting Pitching Heads Success

Fresh off a successful 7-3 homestand, we have a day to recuperate and reflect on our recent accomplishment. A few things come to mind. First, we don't have Ryan Howard in the line-up, who's about ready to return from the DL shortly.

Second, is that our regular performers, really haven't been our regular performers. According to We Should Be GMs,

"...the Phils lineup has been slumping lately, with Rowand (5-24), Victorino (5-24), Rollins (5-32), Utley (1-11), Burrell (4-19), Helms (2-14), and Ruiz (4-22). collectively that's 26-146 for a pitiful .178 batting average..."

It is pretty pitiful. These numbers were posted before Sunday's game.

So what then is the reason for our recent success? For starters, it's the starters.

Remember all the complaints from the beginning of the year about how our starters were good on paper, and how they weren't performing... well, I think this kind of talk will be muffled for a little while. Our starters are keeping us in ball games.

Despite the fact that we've been see-sawing back and forth the last few games, W-L-W-L-W, we have still put up an impressive 8-3 record in our last 11 games. (I'm including 11 games in our recent up-surge, instead of the 10 games of the homestand).

The biggest reason for this 8-3 record is our starters. Here are the numbers.

We have definitely been getting Quality starts (QS). According to baseball statisticians, a quality start is awarded to a starting pitcher who completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs. Incidentally, the QS statistic was invented in 1985 by John Lowe, who was a sports writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Of the 11 games, we had 8 quality starts. (Garcia was very close to another with 5.2 inn, and 2 ER).

A few other things have skewed these statistics... for example, Lieber's 8 innings with 1 ER ended in a loss. Bad luck. And Eaton's 7.2 innings with 1 ER on the next night, was nullified by a blown save which the Phils eventually won, taking another win from the starters. So that 5-3 record, could very easily by 7-3.

Here the breakdown of wins for each starter in this stretch. (Phillies' record is in parentheses), and then there ERA's over these games.

Moyer 1-1 (2-1) 8.10 ERA
Hamels 2-0 (2-0) 2.40 ERA
Garcia 0-1 (1-1) 3.85 ERA
Lieber 1-1 (1-1) 2.40 ERA
Eaton 1-0 (2-0) 0.66 ERA
____________

Starters 5-3 (8-3) 2.63 ERA

PS - It appears as if Jaime Moyer is about to go into a slump. His last two starts, he's accumulated 9.2 innings and given up 12 ER.

What has 5 Heads, 10 Arms and a 5.89 ERA?

No it is not Alfonseca... though he does have 11 fingers, see the picture on the right...

Here are some quick calculations after Sunday's Loss...

Phillies' Starters Statistics:

Record: 1-3
K/BB Ratio: 2.58 to 1 (31 Ks, 12 walks)
Innings Pitched: 35.1
Earned Runs: 23
ERA: 5.89
8 Homeruns allowed... 1 every 4.4 innings.

They are averaging about 5.85 innings per outing with a K/BB ratio of 2.6 to 1. So what is the problem?

1 and 3 with a 5.89 ERA. Something is wrong here. This was supposed to be one of the deepest rotations in the league...

To date Cole Hamels and Jaime Moyer have done their job. Maybe we need more lefties... We need Garcia and Lieber to come back... fast.

Patience... I will show some patience. But hurry up and get good guys.. the Mets are pulling away.